Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7066; (P) 0.7082; (R1) 0.7094; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation above 0.7056 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. We’re favoring the case that corrective fall from 0.7413 is resuming. On the downside, below 0.7056 will target 0.7005 support first. Break will confirm this case and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7413 at 0.6685. However, break of 0.7128 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook again.

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In the bigger picture, while rebound from 0.5506 was strong, there is not enough evidence to confirm bullish trend reversal yet. That is, it could be just a correction inside the long term down trend. Sustained trading back below 55 week EMA (now at 0.6916) will favor the bearish case and argue that the rebound has completed. Focus will be turned back to 0.5506 low. On the upside, break of 0.7413 will extend the rise from 0.5506 to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635.



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