Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7611; (R1) 0.7640; More…

AUD/USD’s break of 0.7507 support confirms short term topping at 0.7639, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. That came after hitting 0.7635 long term fibonacci level. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Deeper pull back could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7338). On the upside, firm break of 0.7639 is now needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside for more correction.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6994) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. In that case, next medium term target would be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950. Rejection by 0.7635 will retain long term bearishness instead.

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