AUD/USD edged higher to 0.8006 last week but dropped sharply from there. With a short term top in place, initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for deeper pull back. But outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7563 support holds. On the upside, above 0.7844 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.8006. Break till extend larger up trend from 0.5506. However, decisive break of 0.7563 will bring deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

In the longer term picture, 0.5506 is a long term bottom, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Focus is now back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will raise the chance that rise from 0.5506 is an impulsive up trend. Next target should be 61.8% retracement at 0.8950 and above. Though, rejection by 0.8135 will keep the case of medium to long term sideway consolidation open.



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