Buyers had their shot….
Like a number of pairs today, the price of the AUDUSD has seen down and up price action today. The high was able to take a few peeks above the 100 hour MA at 0.76318 but could not stay above (not much momentum on the breaks either). The buyers had their shots. Can the sellers take more control now.
The sellers WOULD NOW NOT want to see the price move back above the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 0.76318. They WOULD like to see the price move and show momentum below the 200 hour MA (green line) at 0.76223. Stay below would have traders looking back toward the low for the day and the low from Friday at 0.75877.
Taking a broader look, the pair has mostly traded between 0.7577 and 0.7663 (with failed breaks above and below) over the last 14+ trading days. At some point, the ups and downs will transition into something more trending.
We don't know when that will come, but traders will take clues from the market price action and the technicals. Holding near the 100 hour MA on Friday (there was a small failed break on the last run higher on Friday), and again today, is putting a “lid” on the rally.
Will that lead to a move outside the recent range?
Stay below that 100 hour MA keeps the bias lower. The next move would be below the downside targets (basically the swing lows) until the price breaks out of the Red Box, and the other extreme lows. Conversely, if the price moves back above the 100 hour MA, all bets are off for that idea….The buyers take back more control.