Risk off fall from ceiling

The AUDUSD peaked last week at 0.78152. The high from Monday this week reached 0.78144. The high today reached 0.78174. The 3 pip range at the top is suggestive of willing sellers against the level (and low risk sellers).  The 3 tops will now add to the areas importance.  It will take a move above to get the upside going again.

The move to downside saw the price initial fall toward the 100 hour MA today (blue line in the chart above). The bounce too the pair toward a swing area just below the ceiling and found sellers (between 0.7800 and 0.78066). 

As stocks tumbled from highs (and yields moved higher), the risk off flows out of the AUDUSD, saw the price move below the 100/200 hour MAs between 0.7772 and 0.7758.  However, on the modest stock bounce and yield stall as well, the price has returned back between the moving average levels.  Intraday traders will now look for clues from a break higher or lower.

Taking a broader look, the pair has traded between around 0.7700 and 0.78174 since April 14. The ups and downs have seen more of a upward biased since April 22. A trendline cuts across near 0.7742.  

If the 200 hour moving average can hold support, that would keep the buyers more control.  Get back above the 100 hour moving average would be a positive clue as well. 

In contrast, a move back below that level, and the upward sloping trendline, and the sellers from above, will likely push toward the low area in the range.  

At some point there will be a break outside of the 117 or so pip range and a run (hopefully) in the direction of the break. 

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