AUDUSDs price high stalled near high from last week yesterday

The AUDUSD has traded down to test the 38.2% (at 0.77669), and top of a swing area between 0.7755 to 0.77639. The rising 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.77552 and 0.77522 are also in play on more weakness.

The pair moved up on both Friday and Monday after a break to new week lows on Thursday (and below a swing area between 0.7699 and 0.77101) failed. The rally took the price back toward the high from last week at 0.78152 (the high reached just below that level at 0.78144) where sellers leaned (with stops likely on a break above).   

The rotation lower has been somewhat slow but steady today.

The low price today reached 0.77654 which was just above the high of the swing area at 0.77639.  

The pair shifted after holding the high from last week yesterday.  Sellers want to see the aforementioned targets to the downside broken (including the moving averages) to increase the downward bias.  Risk could be near the 0.77837 area (up to 0.7786).  That was swing highs going back to April 19 and April 20. On the way higher yesterday, the price stalled ahead of that before moving back above.  Today, the last corrective high stalled at 0.7786.  


Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the pair has been mostly between 0.76315 and 0.7848 since the end of December. There was a 5+ day period in February when the pair moved outside that range.  

AUDUSD on the daily chart

The last 2 weeks of trading have seen the price break above the 100 day MA and back above a broken trend line as well.  Last week, the pair bounced off that old trend line and stayed above the 100 day MA at the lows. That is good news for the buyers.  

The apprehension is the sellers at the swing areas above.  

The look does favor the buyers.  The pair has been mostly consolidating for a while and could be poised for another break. The pair has showed support buyers at technical levels below.  It is running into topside resistance which has put a damper in the shorter term. 

As a result watch the hourly moving averages below for the bias clues. Hold and I would expect a break higher down the road. Fall below and I am not so encouraged technically. 

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