EUR/AUD’s steep decline last week and firm break of 1.6337 support suggests that recent rebound might have completed. Yet, the cross lost momentum quickly after hitting 1.6229 and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Consolidation pattern from 1.6033 might be still in progress. On the downside, break of 1.6229 will bring retest of 1.6033. On the upside, break of 1.6505 resistance will start another rising leg, and turn bias to the upside for 1.6827.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions form 1.9799 might be developing into a sideway pattern only. That is, medium term outlook is just neutral, and up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) could resume at a later stage. On the downside, though, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.6463) would revive medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733.

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In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5816) will further affirm this case and target 1.1602/3624 support zone.



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