EUR/AUD’s down trend from 1.9799 finally resumed last week and hit as low as 1.5398. 61.8% projection of 1.6409 to 1.5591 from 1.5945 at 1.5439 was already taken out. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection at 1.5127 next. On the upside, above 1.5504 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5838) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.