EUR/AUD edged lower to 1.5250 last week but rebounded strongly from there. As a short term bottom should be formed, further rise might be seen in the near term. Yet, overall outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.5945 resistance holds. Break of 1.5487 minor support will bring retest of 1.5250 low. However, firm break of 1.5945 will suggest that fall from 1.6827 has completed. Stronger rise would then be seen back to 1.6033 resistance turned support and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5838) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

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