EUR/AUD rose further to 1.5796 last week but retreated from there. Initial bias remains neutral this and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 1.5250 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring down trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.5852 will bring further rally back to 1.6033 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5802) further affirms this case and could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.



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