EUR/AUD edged further higher to 1.5849 last week but reversed from there. Break of 1.5723 support suggests short term topping, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 1.5418 support. Sustained break there will solidify the case that consolidation pattern from 1.5250 has completed, and bring retest of this week. But on the upside, sustained break of 1.5852 will bring further rally back to 1.6033 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5806) further affirms this case and could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.

Source link