EUR/AUD’s rise from 1.5250 resumed last week and hit as high as 1.6174. Initial bias is now on the upside for 1.6827 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.5925 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom was formed at 1.5250, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 1.5250 is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We’ll assess the odds again at a later stage.

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