EUR/GBP dropped to 0.8828 last week but quickly recovered back above 0.8861 key support. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8828, and sustained trading below 0.8861 will target 0.8670 support, as the third leg of pattern from 0.9499. On the upside, though, break of 0.8923 resistance will confirm defense of 0.8861. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.8987) first.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. Decisive break of 0.9499 will target 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 (2008 high) is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.

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