EUR/GBP dropped further to 0.8537 last week, but rebound strongly just ahead of 161.8% projection of 0.9291 to 0.8861 from 0.9229 at 0.8533. A short term bottom should be formed and initial bias remains on the upside this week. Further rise could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.8837). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 0.9291, as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9499, has completed. Also, for now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 0.8537 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. However, firm break of 0.8276 support will suggest that rise from 0.6935 has completed and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 (2008 high) is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.

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