EUR/GBP continued to stay in range below 0.8718 resistance last week. Initial bias is neutral this week but further rise is now in favor as long as 0.8622 support holds. Above 0.8718 will resume the rebound from 0.8470 for 38.2% retracement of 0.9291 to 0.8470 at 0.8784. Sustained break there will affirm the case that whole pattern from 0.9499 has completed, and turn outlook bullish. However, break of 0.8622 support will bring retest of 0.8470 low instead.

In the bigger picture, we’re seeing the price actions from 0.9499 as developing into a corrective pattern. That is, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) would resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.8276 support holds. However, firm break of 0.8276 support will suggest that rise from 0.6935 has completed and turn medium term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is still in progress. It could be resuming long term up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Break of 0.9799 (2008 high) is expected down the road, as long as 0.8276 support holds.

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