EUR/JPY’s break of trend line support last week confirms short term topping at 127.48. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 121.63 to 127.48 at 125.24. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 123.86 next. On the upside, above 126.19 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 121.63 support holds. Decisive break of 127.07 will target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67. Sustained trading above there will target 137.49 next. However, firm break of 121.63 will argue that the rise from 114.42 has completed and turn focus back to this low.
In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg could have started for 137.49 resistance and above.