Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1864; (P) 1.1935; (R1) 1.1978; More

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.2265 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to retest 1.1703 support next. On the upside, above 1.2005 minor resistance would turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. Reaction from 1.2555 should reveal underlying long term momentum in the pair. However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again.

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