EUR/USD’s break of 1.1880 resistance last week argues that consolidation pattern from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1602. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.2011 first. Break will resume whole rally from 1.0635. On the downside, however, break of 1.1791 minor support will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

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In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1576). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.



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