EUR/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that correction from 1.2348 has completed at 1.1703, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1694. Further rise is in favor this week as long as 1.1821 minor support holds. Break of 1.1988 will affirm this bullish case and target 1.2442 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 1.1821 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1703 again.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally could be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1602 support holds. However, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that whole rise from 1.10635 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289.
In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, sustained trading above 55 month EMA and long trend falling trend line. Focus is now on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.