EUR/USD edged higher to 1.2011 last week but retreated quickly. It’s staying above 1.1762 support for now. Hence, initial bias remains neutral this week first, with further rise in favor. On the upside, break of 1.2011 will target resume the whole rise from 1.0635. On the downside, firm break of 1.1762 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper pull back, to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1639) and below.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has completed at 1.0635 already. Rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.

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In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1700). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.

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