EUR/USD’s rebound extended higher last week after some brief consolidations. The development further affirm the case that corrective pull back from 1.2011 has completed at 1.1612 already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 1.2011 resistance first. Break will resume whole rally from 1.0635 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1612 at 1.2462. On the downside, break of 1.1732 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.1612 support instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally rise should be seen to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ). This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1422 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, the strong break of 55 month EMA is taken as a sign of long term trend reversal. Immediate focus will be on decade long trend line resistance (now at 1.1650). Sustained trading above there will add more credence to the case that down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has finished at 1.0339. Further break of 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 ) will confirm and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above.