100 hour MA at 1.22041
The EURUSD has corrected back higher over the early NY hours of trading. The low for the day reached 1.21634. That was above what is a lower target floor (ahead of the May 28 extreme) at 1.2159 (see red numbered circles).
The run back to the up and down range since May 25. That level comes in at 1.21988. Above that is the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.2204 and 1.22093. Earlier today, the price test the 200 hour moving average in the early Asian session. It broke below that 200 hour moving average installed initially at the 100 hour moving average in the early European session, but then fell below on it's way to the session low for the day. As a result, there should be some knowing sellers near those moving averages on a retest.
Taking a broader look at the market cents May 17, the price action has mostly stayed between the 1.2159 level and the 1.22448 level. The pair did extended above the upper range yesterday, but found sellers well ahead of the May 25 high at 1.22657. That tilted the bias back to the downside.
Ultimately, the price will need to extend either above the topside of the value area at 1.22448, or below the lower value area support at 1.2159 (and stay outside the red box). For now, the pair is happy to rotate from extreme to extreme, and in the process use the moving averages as intermediate barometers for the buyers and sellers.