Pair is awaiting the next shove

The EURUSD has fallen in trading today but is finding some support near the 1.2000 level and the 100 hour moving average currently at 1.2005. The low price today reached 1.1998.  The current price is trading at 1.2007.  The last five trading hours have seen the price waffle between 1.1998 and 1.2015.  If the price can move back below the 1.2000 level, the 1.1987 to 1.1994 swing area (green numbered circles), and the rising trend line (see red numbered circles) are the next targets. The 200 hour MA is at 1.19657.  The price moved above the 200 hour MA on April 5th and has remained comfortably above that moving average since that time.  

Sellers are trying to take more control, but they need to push through more technical levels to increase the bearish price on the hourly chart. 

Looking at the daily chart below, the pair extended to the highest level since March 3 trading yesterday and in the process moved above its 100 day moving average at 1.20548 for the first time since March 3 as well (see daily chart below).  That break above the 100 day MA could not be sustained, however,  and the price rotated lower – closing below the MA level in the process.

EURUSD on the daily chart

The EURUSD bottomed on March 31 at 1.17035. The price is been up on 11 of the last 15 trading days (377 pips in total from low to the high). Today the price is lower on the day and has moved back below the 50% midpoint of the move down from the January 2021 high at 1.20261. Bearish

Is the failed peak above the 100 day MA yesterday, a good place to stop the rally? 

With the price back below the 100 day MA and the 50% at 1.20261, the pairs price will have to take back those levels if the buyers are to take back control (the 50% is now a close risk level for the day. Stay below is more bearish).    

On the downside off the daily chart, the next target area comes between 1.19857 and 1.19943 (see red numbered circles). Move below that level and the sellers should start to be more confident about the high being in place.  

Invest in yourself. See our forex education hub.



Source link

×