Still above the 200 hour MA
The EURUSD spiked higher and in the process reached the 38.2% of the move down from the January 6 high at 1.21658. The high price reached 1.21723 but quickly reversed back lower and currently trades around 1.2150 area. Lagarde said that FX appreciation is a drag on inflation. That has hurt the bullish move higher – at least for now.
Technically, the pair today has been able to get above the 200 hour MA today (it moved above yesterday, only to fail fairly quickly). So far, the price has been able to stay above the level over the last 6 hours. That MA comes in at 1.21340. A swing area is between 1.21315 to 1.21364 and increases the areas importance IF the buyers are to remain in control. Move below and all bets are off for the buyers. The sellers would be back in control with a retest of the 100 hour MA in the cards.
On the topside, telling it like it is, the price needs to get above the 38.2% and stay above. Not being able to do that will disappoint the buyers. It would only be a plain vanilla correction. That is not something to build on from a bullish perspective.
So there is a battle going on given the failure above the 38.2%. The price remains near the 1.2150 level, but momentum was given a quick punch in the gut. If the price can hold above the 200 hour MA, maybe there is another run higher, but a move below and the chop higher since the bottom on Monday, was a plain vanilla correction of the recent move lower in January.