Trying to stay above the 100 hour MA

The EURUSD is trading in a modest/low 30 pip trading range for the day. The average over the last 22 days (about a month of trading) is 75 pips.  There is room to roam (higher or lower). 

Looking at the hourly chart, the pair is lower on the day after testing the high from yesterday and finding sellers (see red numbered circles at 1.1781), but has been pushing against its 100 hour moving average at 1.1756 over the last 5 or so hours and finding some reluctance to go lower as well.  

The price has moved below that moving average on 2 separate hourly bars today, but each failed.  A move below with momentum would have the pair targeting a lower trendline at 1.1744 and then the 200 hour moving average at 1.1733 (green line). That moving average is near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 25 high.

Until the break however, the buyers are clinging to some intraday control. The close target above would be the high price from October 1 at 1.1769 (high of old swing area  – see green numbered circles).  Get above and the double top at 1.1781 would be the next upside hurdle.

At 30 pips for the day's trading range, there is room to roam.  Which way will the pair break?

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