Approaches the 100 day MA again

Yesterday, the EURUSD fell below its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since a brief break on February 5. You have to go back to November 2020 to find a another break below its 100 day moving average. The fall below the level yesterday, however, could not be sustained. The price shot back higher.

The initial move was to the upside in trading today, and the price was able to extend above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above at 1.20933), but fell short of its 50% retracement of the move down from the high last week (at 1.22423) at 1.21168 and the 200 hour moving average at 1.21201. Sellers reemerged and the push higher in US rates has helped to send the pair to the new lows for the day. 

Technically, the pair fell below a swing area (see red numbered circles) between 1.20493 1.20579. The price currently trades between those levels after extending to a new session low at 1.20428.

The best case scenario for sellers is to keep a lid on the rebound in the swing area. If that can be done, a retest of the 100 day moving average at 1.20245 area would be the traders focus (and a lower swing area between 1.2019 and 1.20231).  

If there is a bigger rebound, watch the 38.2% retracement of the days trading range at 1.20695 up to the early European lows at 1.20734.

EURUSD on the 5 minute chart
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