GBP/JPY’s decline last week argues that corrective rebound from 133.03 has completed at 140.31. Initial bias is neutral this week first with another fall expected. Break of 137.19 will target 134.40 support to confirm this bearish case. However, on the upside, break of 138.86 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 140.31 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as a rising leg of the sideway consolidation pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. However, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.

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In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 143.38) will dampen this view and could open up further rise back to 195.86 (2015 high).

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