GBP/JPY rose further to 150.39 last week but formed a temporary top and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 146.39 minor support holds. Break of 150.39 will target 100% projection of 123.94 to 142.71 from 133.03 at 151.80 next. However, firm break of 146.39 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 143.43).

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the sideway pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). With 147.95 resistance taken out, further rally would now be seen to 156.59 resistance (2018 high), Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, break of 142.71 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of completion of the rise from 123.94. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA (now at 143.95) is a early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high).

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