GBP/USD’s rise from 1.2675 last week and reached 1.3624. But as a temporary top was formed there, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3624 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next. In any case, near term outlook will stays bullish as long as 1.3134 support holds, in case of deeper retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.3514 key resistance. Decisive break there should also come with sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.3308). That should confirm medium term bottoming at 1.1409. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.4376 resistance and above. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3514 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.1409 at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, focus remains on decade long trend line from 2.1161 (2007 high). Sustained break there should confirm long term bottoming at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from could either be a correction or starting a long term up trend. In either case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134.



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