…and it is to the upside for the GBPUSD
The GBPUSD spend part of Thursday and most of the day on Friday trading above and below the 200 hour MA (higher green line in the chart below) at 1.37474 currently. That choppy trend continued into the Asian session today. Finally over the last six or so hours, the price has moved away from the moving average to the upside. The price did base near the 50% midpoint of the July trading range at 1.37403 which give the buyers a little more confidence perhaps.
The high price for the day extended toward the 1.3800 natural resistance level. The high price reached 1.37996. A swing area (see red numbered circles) between 1.37965 and 1.38004 is also in that area.. The price has backed down and currently trades near 1.3779.
With the move away from the 200 hour moving average and 50% retracement, traders (who bought the break) will not want to see the price return (or move below) that area.
Is there a closers support level today?
Ahead of that level today, watch the 1.3768 to 1.3775 level. That is home to the 38.2 – 50% retracement of today's trading range. A move below would also take the price below the swing high from Friday's New York trade and earlier today near 1.3772. The 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart (currently at 1.37695 – blue line in the chart below) is also within that area.
Go below, and intraday buyers would be disappointed and should lead to more probing with the potential move back toward the 200 hour moving average a target (again).