The 38.2% of the move up from June 29 low comes in at 1.25092
The GBPUSD is moving to a new session low and in the process is looking to break a key retracement level. That comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June 29 low. Recall from Tuesday, the price fell below that level only to snap back higher. Getting below the level should solicit more selling and give the sellers more confidence.
Looking at the hourly chart, the range this week has been fairly confined with the high price coming in on Monday at around 1.2666. The low price was on Tuesday 1.2479.
Over the ups and downs, the price traded above and below the moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart above. Yesterday the price closed back below each of those moving averages, and today the high prices found sellers against the falling 100 hour moving average (blue line). Bearish.
The recent cracking of the upward sloping trendline has given sellers to go-ahead to explore and probe the downside including that key 38.2% retracement. The broken trend line is now a risk level for shorts. Stay below keeps the bears more control (that comes in at 1.2543)
PS EURGBP is an influence today asa it trades to the highest level since June 30. The price near the low today stalled against a lower trend line. The price stayed above the 100 hour MA.