The pair ping-pongs between swing areas
The GBPUSD started the day near a swing area between 1.3828 and 1.3833. The 38.2% retracement of the range since June 23 was also near that area (at 1.38334).
The price moved higher and after breaking above its 200 hour moving average (green line) for the first time since June 28, the buying intensified and the price extended higher.
The pair's run higher reached the 61.8% retracement at 1.38973 (and just below the 1.3900 level), and started to rotate back to the downside. The weaker European data helped to push the price lower in the European morning session.
The low price move back below its 200 hour moving average, but did find support against the swing area and 38.2% retracement between 1.3828 and 1.38334. The “lap” to the upside and back to the downside was complete. The price has since moved back higher and trying to stay above its 200 hour moving average 1.38522.
With the pair mired in an up and down day, traders will try to grasp onto the technical levels for clues. The 200 hour moving average will be a barometer. The lows for the day and swing area is another bias defining level. A move below the 1.3828 – 1.38334 area would be more bearish with the 100 hour MA at 1.38172 the next hurdle to get to and through.
On the topside, moving away from the 200 hour moving average would have traders looking to break above the 50% retracement at 1.38653 and then the 61.8% and upper swing area between 1.3889 and 1.38973.