100 hour moving average, 38.2% retracement and 200 hour moving average all being tested
The GBPUSD was moved down to test a cluster of support including the 100 hour moving average 1.3622, the 30.2% retracement 1.3610 and the 200 hour moving average 1.36014. As I type the pair is now cracking the lowest of the levels (the 200 hour MA). That increases the bearish bias with the 50% retracement of the move up from the week's low to the week's high at 1.35795 as the next downside target.
Sellers looking for more downside momentum would now view the 100 hour moving average as a risk level for the trade. Stay below keeps the bears in control. Close risk might be the 38.2% retracement at 1.36101.
For the week, the pair started the week with a run lower intraday on Monday. The fall took the price to the week's low at 1.34498 and just below a wide channel trendline. However momentum could not be sustained and the price rotated back to the upside.
The high price on Wednesday reach 1.3700. That was just short of the January 4 high of 1.37028. Double top. The correction off that high stalled near the 38.2% retracement before rising on Thursday to a new week high at 1.37092. Buyers on the break of the double top could not press higher. As a result, longs exited positions today (if you can't go higher, go lower) and has trended lower with the overall push higher in the USD in the London session.
Moving back toward the moving averages is a test for the buyers and sellers, and also the pair brings the pair back toward a more neutral area. Buyers and sellers will have to make a choice between breaking lower and making the run toward the 50% midpoint, OR finding support and rotating back above the 100 hour moving average.