Gold is finding it tough to tell its story
The fad of tying gold to real rates has worn off and suddenly gold is struggling to tell its story.
Looking at the chart, the four-day bounce from the Feb low was a surprise but it stalled at $1850 and selling pressure has returned today, dropping it $15 to $1827. It’s starting to trace out a series of lower highs and lower lows.
What’s worse is that we’re nearing the end of the seasonal tailwind from Dec through Feb. Lunar New Year holidays are now underway and that will tap out marginal buyers.
On the monetary front the picture is a strong as ever. Expectations for US fiscal stimulus continue to rise and Powell was unequivocal about keep rates low yesterday. Debt monetization is coming.
At the same time, crypto is easing up a good chunk of retail demand from the anti-fiat crowd and price action dominates narrative.
I’m a long-term bull but I just don’t like the look of the chart at the moment.