I still don't trust it, but buyers are making a play on the sharp run higher
I have not been a big fan of the GBPUSD of late. It has had an overabundance of very volatile up and down price action (which is different than non-trending). It does not have a rhythm. Case in point, the price tumbled lower earlier today falling about 64 pips in 7 hours, then bottomed at 1.3703 and shot higher over the next seven hours up to a high at 1.3815 (112 pips).
Anyway, 1.3820. That is just short of the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the April high at 1.38225. Get above is more bullish. Also, earlier in the day the price sold off against its 200 hour moving average (green line). Holding that level give sellers the edge, and the price moved lower. When the same moving average was broken on the way back higher, the buying intensified. That is more bullish. The 50% retracement of the April range comes in a 1.3793. The price is now above that level too. There is a swing area near the highs between 1.3801 to 1.3811. The price is trying to stay above it. Bullish tilt).
So, buyers are making a play and to have more control. The question is can we trust this “market” in this currency pair?
Thankfully, I/we can still use technicals for bias clues. Yes, the price action may make a mess of them from time to time, trust in the “market” is different than trust in the technicals. Sometimes, the “market” wants to be rebellious before getting back in line.
So I would be positive above the 50% retracement now. The price correction off the initial high did take a quick look below that level, but only briefly. That showed some buying interest. Combine that with the 200 hour runs (both down and back up), and I give the nod to the buyers.
PS. The low this week did bottom on Monday near swing lows going back to March 23 (see red numbered circles). That was a positive for the dip buyers.