The 50% retracement comes in at 0.91184

The USDCHF has been following the USDs trend lower today.  The ranges up to 74 pips compared to 51 pip average of the last 22 trading days (around the month of trading). There has been a little in the way of retracements today.

The pair technically has been able to get back below its 100 hour moving average at 0.91514 currently (blue line in the chart above) and below the 38.2% retracement at 0.91393 and a upward sloping trendline at 0.91367.  The pair over the last few hours has been testing its 50% retracement of the move up from the October 21 low. That level comes in at 0.91184. Just below that at 0.9111 sits the 200 hour moving average (a swing area between 0.9109 and 0.91126 is also in that area).  

Right now, the pair sits between the moving averages and around the 50% retracement level which is a neutral area for buyers and sellers. Sellers can latch onto the fact that the price is below its 100 hour moving average. Buyers can say the 50% and 200 hour moving average is still holding support.

It will take a move outside those upper and lower extremes – with momentum – to tilt the bias in the direction of the break from a technical perspective. 

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the recent move to the upside did stall ahead of its 100 day moving average at 0.92099. The high price reached 0.92069. That helped to push the price lower. It gives sellers certainly a technical reason to sell today.

Through the election results in the near term, a sharp move higher in the US dollar (likely on a Trump victory) would have traders looking toward that key 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below). 

The price has not traded above that moving average since May 28. The last 3 or so months has seen the price wander up and down and as a result, the 100 day moving average has caught up with the price. That helps to force traders to make a bias decision. Stay below the moving average and it keeps the bears in control, or move above and tilt the bias to the bullish/corrective side. The successful hold of the 100 day MA kept the sellers in the drivers seat. 

USDCHF on the daily chart

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