USD/CAD dipped to 1.2475 last week but recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Corrective rise from 1.2363 might have completed at 1.2646 already, after hitting 55 day EMA. Below 1.2475 will bring retest of 1.2363 low first. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. Overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2742 resistance holds, even in case of another rebound.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.

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