USD/CAD edged higher to 1.2653 last week but failed to sustain above 55 day EMA (now at 1.2596) again. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retesting 1.2363 low. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4667. On the upside, above 1.2533 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again. But outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.2653 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.2994 support turned resistance resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.