USD/CAD’s down trend from 1.4667 resumed last week by break through 1.2363 support, and hit as low as 1.2265. As a temporary low was formed there, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.2653 resistance to bring down trend resumption. Break of 1.2265 will target 100% projection of 1.2880 to 1.2363 from 1.2653 at 1.2136 next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). We’d look for strong support from there to bring rebound. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.2653 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, sustained break of 1.2061 will be a sign of long term bearish. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.