USD/CHF recovered after edging lower to 0.9087 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further fall is still in favor as long as 0.9197 resistance holds. Below 0.9087 will target a test on 0.8998. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, however, break of 0.9197 will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8998 with another rise to 0.9304 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9376 support turned resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

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In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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