USD/CHF dropped further to 0.9127 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As 38.2% retracement of 0.8756 to 0.9471 at 0.9198 was taken out already, further fall is expected as long as 0.9244 resistance holds. Break of 0.9127 will resume the decline from 0.9471 for 61.8% retracement at 0.9029 next.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464 argues that rebound from 0.8756 was probably just a corrective move. That is, larger down trend from 1.0237 might be still in progress. We’ll monitor the downside momentum of the decline from 0.9471, to assess the chance of breakthrough 0.8756 low at a later stage.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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