USD/CHF edged lower last week as fall from 0.9471 continued. Despite loss of downside momentum as see in 4 hour MACD, outlook is unchanged. Further fall is expected this week to retest 0.8756 low. However, break of 0.9046 resistance will now indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464 argues that rebound from 0.8756 was probably just a corrective move. That is, larger down trend from 1.0237 might be still in progress. Medium term bearish is also affirmed as the pair is now far below falling 55 week EMA. Firm break of 0.8756 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.0237 to 0.8756 from 0.9471 at 0.8556 next.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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