USD/CHF recovered to 0.9052 last week but failed to sustain above 0.9046 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is still expected as long as 0.9052 holds. On the downside, break of 0.8929 will resume the fall from 0.9471 to retest 0.8756 low. However, firm break of 0.9052 will turn bias to the upside and target 38.2% retracement of 0.9471 to 0.8929 at 0.9136 first.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464 argues that rebound from 0.8756 was probably just a corrective move. That is, larger down trend from 1.0237 might be still in progress. Medium term bearish is also affirmed as the pair is now far below falling 55 week EMA. Firm break of 0.8756 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.0237 to 0.8756 from 0.9471 at 0.8556 next.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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