USD/CHF dropped notably last week and the breach of 0.9141 support argues that rebound from 0.8925 has completed at 0.9273 already, after rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9471 to 0.8925 at 0.9262. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9119) first. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 0.8925 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9273 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is currently neutral with focus on 0.9471 resistance. Sustained break there will indicate completion of whole decline from 1.0342 (2016 high). Medium term outlook will be turned bullish for a test on 1.0342 high. But, rejection by 0.9471 again will revive bearishness for another fall through 0.8756 low.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



Source link

×