USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9116 last week but drew support from 55 day EMA (now at 0.9129) and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained break of the 55 day EMA will affirm the case that rebound from 0.8925 has completed at 0.9273. Deeper fall would then be seen back to retest 0.8925 low. On the upside, however, break of 0.9273 and sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 0.9471 to 0.8925 at 0.9262 will target 0.9471 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is currently neutral with focus on 0.9471 resistance. Sustained break there will indicate completion of whole decline from 1.0342 (2016 high). Medium term outlook will be turned bullish for a test on 1.0342 high. But, rejection by 0.9471 again will revive bearishness for another fall through 0.8756 low.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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