USD/CHF’s deeper than expected pull back last week argues that corrective rebound form 0.8998 has completed with three waves up to 0.9304. As a temporary low was formed at 0.9162, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9162 will target a test on 0.8998 low. Nevertheless, break of 0.9244 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside to extend the rebound from 0.8998, through 0.9304, to 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8998 at 0.9343.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9376 support turned resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

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In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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