USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9304 extended lower last week after brief recovery. The development further affirm the case that corrective rebound from 0.8998 has completed at 0.9304 already. Initial bias stays on the downside for retesting 0.8998 low first. Break there will resume larger down trend for 61.8% projection of 0.9901 to 0.8998 from 0.9304 at 0.8746 next. On the upside, break of 0.9197 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 0.9304. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9376 support turned resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.

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In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.



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