Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.73; (P) 103.96; (R1) 104.34; More..

The break of channel resistance is already a sign that down trend from 111.71 has completed. Focus remains on 104.39 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm and bring stronger rise to 38.2% retracement of 111.71 to 102.58 at 106.06. On the downside, however, break of 103.31 will retain near term bearishness and bring retest of 102.58 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 105.67 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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