Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.52; (P) 104.90; (R1) 105.13; More...

USD/JPY’s strong rebound and break of 105.29 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 104.18. That came just ahead of 100% projection of 111.71 to 105.98 from 109.85 at 104.12. Intraday bias is turn back to the upside for stronger recovery. Focus is back on 106.07 support turned resistance. As long as 106.07 holds, larger decline from 111.71 is still in favor to extend lower. However, sustained break of 106.07 will indicate near term bullish reversal and target 108.18 resistance next.

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In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

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