Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.97; (P) 105.22; (R1) 105.38; More...

USD/JPY’s breach of 104.73 minor support argues that rebound from 103.17 might have completed at 105.67, ahead of 106.10 resistance. It’s also back below 55 day EMA, staying well inside near term falling channel. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 103.17 low. Break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, firm break of 106.10 resistance should confirm completion of fall from 111.71, and turn outlook bullish for further rally.

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In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. On the upside, break of 106.10 resistance will suggest that the decline from 111.71 has completed. Focus will then be back to this resistance to signal medium term reversal.

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